Final Word from Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Nothing in recent Czech politics and high-level business can compare in importance to the Kantar TNS poll that sealed the political fate of Bohuslav Sobotka, but the June STEM poll comes close. There's nothing groundbreaking about the poll rating for ANO (32.8%), or even for ČSSD (11.4%). We've seen such figures before from other agencies. Nor is it so shocking that the combined figure for KDU-ČSL (7.4%) and STAN (0.9%) falls short of the 10% threshold for the two parties to make it into Parliament as an official coalition. More important is how close ANO comes to being able to form a one-party majority government if either KDU/STAN or TOP 09 (with 5.5% in the STEM poll) is left at the altar. If they both missed the hurdle, a four-year ANO power play would be a near certainty. Even if this didn't happen, ANO could still form a two-party coalition (or minority government) with any other single party in Parliament except TOP 09. To borrow from Miroslav Kalousek, the competition to "kiss oligarchal ass" and form a government with Andrej Babiš would be unprecedented. [Czech Republic ass oligarch]