Final Word from Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Fans of spy novels are familiar with theories about how the U.S. didn't really try to win the Cold War, because the standoff brought so many benefits. The new Cold Peace over energy, missile defense and human rights shares some of the same traits. The U.S. is pushing on Russia, but not too hard. One reason, we are told, is that Washington fears losing ExxonMobil's Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project. The de facto nationalization of TNK-BP's Kovytka field last week heightens these concerns and raises the question of how far the U.S. is willing to go to protect Exxon's investment. Would it drop its missile-defense plans in Central Europe in return? The U.S. wouldn't mix the two, some observers say. Others say it wouldn't be an even trade, because Sakhalin-1 is far more important to Putin than missile defense. Others say that Putin wouldn't go for it, because he intends to get his way on both issues.[Czech Republic United States of America British Petroleum Vladimir Gazprom]